ShaRhonda’s Chicago Mayoral Election Predictions!!!

TOMORROW IS ELECTION DAY! TOMORROW IS ELECTION DAY AND CHICAGO WILL HAVE ITS FIRST BLACK WOMAN MAYOR!!! #BLACKGIRLMAGIC

But the question is: will it be Toni Preckwinkle or Lori Lightfoot?

To be transparent, I am #TeamToni. However, these predictions are based on my political knowledge, not my political opinions. Also, its two Black women, so basically, either way, I’m good, or in the words of Black Girl Queen, Issa Rae,

Luckily for you, Chicagoans, I, ShaRhonda Dawson, am a total Nate Silver wannabe and have created my very scientific predictions for this race. Like, for real, scientific, there are pie graphs!

Before we go any further, you need to read my analysis of political voters, or as, I, ShaRhonda, call them, “political tribes.” In Chicago, we don’t have political parties; everyone is a Democrat. However, we do have Chicago political tribes.

Click here for a detailed overview of our political tribes, remember we don’t have political parties.

Now, that you are well versed with the different Chicago political tribes, on to the main show, my predictions!

ShaRhonda getting ready…

Okay, sipping my tea and I’m ready…

Chicago historically has low voter turnout for mayoral elections. So, my predictions, sorry, ShaRhonda’s (it is really hard to write in third person!), first prediction for the Chicago Mayoral Election is the voter turnout.

PREDICTION NUMBER ONE: VOTER TURNOUT

Even though this is a historic election, I/she, am/is, pessimistic about voter turnout. Okay, so for voter turnout, ShaRhonda predicts that the total citywide voter turnout will only be 33%. Meaning, only 33% out of 100% eligible voters will actually vote. Which is roughly 500,000 voters.

Do better, Chicago. We need better voter turnout! You know, you can register AND vote on the same day, right? We should be at 50% at least. We have work to do. #teamVoterRegistration

MOVING ON…

PREDICTION TWO: PERCENTAGE OF VOTERS IN EACH CHICAGO POLITICAL TRIBE

*Click here to get my descriptions of the tribes; where they live, how to get in good with the group and how to piss them off.

Chicago political tribes voter turnout

Within that 33% of voters here are breakdown of those voters to the total of the final voting pool. Most Chicago political pundits will predict by Ward, but, again, I am using Political Tribes as my guide.

Of those 33% voters, I am predicting turnout in each tribe as the following:

Total Election Percentages

Low/Non-Voters- 2–5% Voters
Progressive Voters- 22%
Lake Front Liberals- 35%
Machine Voters- 30%
Independent Voters- 10%

POLITICAL TRIBE VOTE PREDICTION LOW-TURNOUT VOTERS

Low turnout voters/Chicago political tribes description: Chicago has a history of enticing poor people to vote by offering cigarettes or $10 for voting straight democratic. Extremely poor African Americans that live in high crime areas, Most of the members of this tribe are too busy trying to survive to engage in the politics. And unfortunately for the Machine Tribe, federal law has made it illegal to offer people money in exchange for votes. But around election-time, there is always a big push to engage (cough, cough, offer cash or food) to this tribe to vote. (Total amount of votes available is 15,000)

Low-Voter Turnout Tribe

SHARHONDA’S PREDICTION: TONI PRECKWINKLE WILL WIN 80% OF THE NON/LOW VOTERS TRIBE FOR A TOTAL OF 12,000 VOTES AND LORI WILL GET 3,000.

_______________________________________________________________POLITICAL TRIBE VOTE PREDICTION: PROGRESSIVE VOTERS (PV)

Chicago Progressive Political Tribe

Description: Progressive voters are one of Chicago’s most highly visible, highly educated, highly organized tribes. This group is the most racially diverse of all of the Chicago tribes. Full disclosure: this is the group I most identify, thus, the very light critique. (Afro-centric blacks, IPO Latinos in Little Village and Pilsen, GLBQQ communities, 2nd generation east Asians, a surprisingly high number of young South Asians, most white college graduates who 1) work in non profits 2) ride bikes regularly 3) don’t live in Lincoln Park or Old Town 4) brings their lunch to work. (There are a total of 110,000 Progressive votes)

SHARHONDA’S PREDICTION: TONI PRECKWINKLE WILL PROGRESSIVE VOTERS AND GET 70% OF THEIR VOTES FOR A TOTAL OF 77,000 and Lori Lightfoot will get 33,000.

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POLITICAL TRIBE VOTE PREDICTION: LAKE FRONT LIBERALS

Chicago Lake Front Liberals Political Tribe

Description: Lake Front Liberals are the Progressives of yesteryear. This group is very passionate about systems changes, inequality, and ending racism. However, most of this group is over 50 and have mortgages, children, and are running nonprofit organizations so they have no time to be an active part of the movement. Also, as their children approach high school, a large number of this group will quietly plot their move to the suburbs but only the progressive ones: Evanston or Oak Park. Those who live in any suburb with less than a 5% minority population feel incredibly guilty it but make up for it by adding political and/or progressive bumper stickers to their car. (There are a total of 175,000 LFL votes)

SHARHONDA’S PREDICTION: LORI LIGHTFOOT WILL WIN THE LAKEFRONT LIBERAL GROUP AND GET 70% OF LAKEFRONT LIBERAL TRIBE FOR A TOTAL OF 113,750 VOTES and Toni Preckwinkle will get 61,250.

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POLITICAL TRIBE VOTE PREDICTION: PENSION VOTERS

(former Machine Voters)

Chicago Machine Voters

Description: Ethnic whites (those that identify first as Irish, Polish, Jewish and then American), South Side middle-class blacks, Latinos with city contracts a members of HDO.) 99% of this group have government jobs and/or government contracts. Usually, they have families with multi-generational government jobs. (shhhh, they probably vote Republican in state and National elections) There are 150,000 votes available.

Pension/Machine Voters

SHARHONDA’S PREDICTION: LORI LIGHTFOOT WILL WIN THE PENSION TRIBE WITH 55% OF THEIR VOTES FOR A TOTAL OF 82,500 VOTES and Toni Preckwinkle will get 67,500.

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POLITICAL TRIBE VOTE PREDICTION: REPUBLICAN VOTERS

Chicago Republican Voters

Description: they aren’t enough Republican that vote in the city elections to even form a real tribe. But you can spot the few of them on the Metra, high society fundraisers, and coming to church at Old.St. Pats on Sunday and/or working at the Chicago Tribune. Also, most of the recent college graduates from Big 10 schools but they are still registered to vote at their parents’ home and/or don’t vote. Either way, they are a non-factor. But you can catch them at Cub games and/or the bars that surround Wrigley Field.

SHARHONDA’S PREDICTION: LORI LIGHTFOOT WILL GET 98% OF THE REPUBLICAN VOTERS IN CHICAGO. (THERE ARE PROBABLY 98 REGISTERED REPUBLICAN IN CHICAGO AND LORI WILL GET 96 OF THOSE VOTERS. THE OTHER TWO ARE RELATIVES OF ED BURKE.) ______________________________________________________________________________

POLITICAL TRIBE PREDICTION: INDEPENDENT VOTERS:

There is a small group(5-10%) of the electorate that doesn’t fit in any of abovementioned political tribes. Chicago Independent Voters are so rare, they are the Chicago unicorn voters. Meaning, they are mythical.

Chicago is a very tribe based city. We have neighborhood tribes, baseball team tribes, political tribes, best pizza in Chicago tribes, so it rare to have people, who live in Chicago, define themselves, outside, of any tribal group. And, honestly, I have spent over 30 years in Chicago politics (I count getting petition signatures for Harold Washington in front of Jewels as a kid as Chicago political experience)and I have maybe met 3 Chicago Independent Voters and I couldn’t talk to them because they had ketchup on their hotdogs.

Okay, ShaRhonda is a political scientist and I can make a political estimation about this weird, I mean, unusual, Chicago political tribe called Independents. (What do they call their neighborhoods? Probably River West or North Lakeview) FOCUS SHARHONDA! Okay, if I HAD to predict, who, Chicago Independent Voters that are not in Political Tribes would vote for…hmmm…River West isn’t a neighborhood, it was designed and named by relators. Damn it, make a decision, ShaRhonda!!! (There are 50,000 votes available.)

SHARHONDA PREDICTS THAT WILL LORI LIGHTFOOT WILL WIN INDEPENDENT VOTER BLOC AND GET 70% OF THEIR VOTES FOR A TOTAL OF 35,000 votes and Toni Preckwinkle will get 15,000

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In summary, I am predicting that 33% of voter turnout citywide.

Of those 33% voters, I am predicting turnout in each tribe as the following:

Low/Non-Voters-3%

Total Election Percentages

Progressive Voters– 22%

LakeFront Liberals– 35%

Machine Voters-30%

Independent Voters-10%

ShaRhonda is predicting that the winner of Chicago Mayoral Election, with 53% of the vote (266,250 votes) will be……

THE

THE W

THE WI

THE WIN

THE WINN

THE WINNE

THE WINNER

THE WINNER IS…

With 52% Of The Vote

Lori Lightfoot

Vote Total: 264,646

I predict that Toni Preckwinkle will get 46% (264,646 votes) of the votes.

*This content was created by ShaRhonda Knott-Dawson and are my personal opinions.

**Photo by Darla Warlick

@darladraws/Instagram

**The great thing about Chicago Elections, is that, they are Chicago! Elections! Which means ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN! So, hopefully, we will have a clean (hehe), fair (haha), all votes counted (okay, dying), election and the results will come easy.